US Meteorologist Warns He Can No Longer Accurately Predict Hurricane Paths

US Weather Agencies Severely Understaffed as Forecast Quality Declines

After framing the issue, John Morales focused on the impact of federal government cuts on the National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA. According to his data, the Central and South Florida NWS offices are currently 19-39% understaffed. “From Tampa to Key West, including Miami, staffing levels are down 20 to 40%,” he added.

This widespread staffing shortage is affecting operations nationwide. Morales also noted a nearly 20% drop in weather balloon launches, which carry vital radio signals. Alongside these declines, the lead meteorologist warned that forecast quality and accuracy are steadily deteriorating.

Public health scientist Eric Liang Feigl-Ding amplified Morales’s warning on social media. Directly addressing the Trump administration and its supporters, @DrEricDing wrote on X: “Dear MAGA & DOGE fans—National Weather Service is now so understaffed by 20-40% in Florida & Southern US that meteorologists urgently warn they cannot confidently predict hurricane paths anymore. These senseless cuts will endanger your life.”

US Weather Agencies ‘Critically Understaffed’; Rehiring Begins After Layoffs

Despite layoffs earlier in 2025, the US weather agencies appear to be shifting gears. Sources told CNN this week that the National Weather Service has been authorized to hire about 125 new meteorologists and specialists for forecast offices across the country. However, several centers—including those in Goodland, Kansas, and Sacramento, California—are still struggling to recover from the previous cuts.

These new hires come amid rising concerns that both the National Weather Service and FEMA are unprepared for the hurricane season that began on Sunday. A report by The Hill revealed a leaked internal document labeling the department as “critically understaffed.” The document also noted efforts to fill meteorologist vacancies in disaster-prone areas like Houston and Miami.

Earlier this week, Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA employee familiar with the rehiring process, said agencies are looking to recruit electronics technicians, hydrologists, physical scientists, and meteorologists. A spokesperson for the National Weather Service confirmed this in an email statement to The Hill.

“NOAA leadership is taking steps to address those who took voluntary early retirement options. NWS continues short-term Temporary Duty assignments (TDYs) and is issuing Reassignment Opportunity Notices (RONs) to fill roles at field locations with the greatest operational need,” said Erica Grow Cei.

“Additionally, a targeted number of permanent, mission-critical field positions will soon be advertised under an exception to the Department-wide hiring freeze to help stabilize frontline operations.”